Nigeria Stunned, Ghana Pointless: AFCON 2027 Qualifying Has Already Torn Up The Script

JOHANNESBURG – Two games. That is all it has taken for the road to the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations to produce its first major casualties, unlikely leaders and early warning signs for some of Africa’s biggest football nations.

Nigeria have been thrashed 3-0 by Guinea-Bissau.

Ghana have lost twice and sit bottom of their group without a point.

The Gambia came from two goals down to beat the Black Stars 4-2 in Ghana.

Rwanda have won at home and away.

And Guinea-Bissau, drawn from Pot 4, have six points, five goals scored and none conceded after victories over co-hosts Tanzania and three-time African champions Nigeria.

The opening qualifying window is not quite finished. Guinea host Kenya in Group D on Thursday, while Angola face Malawi in Group B on 6 October.

But with most of the continent having completed two matches, the early picture is already fascinating.

AFCON 2027 will be staged in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania from 19 June to 17 July, the first time three countries have jointly hosted the tournament and the first time Africa’s flagship football competition has returned to East Africa in more than five decades.

Forty-eight teams are competing in the main qualifying group stage for places at the 24-team finals, with Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania already guaranteed their places as co-hosts.

And after barely a week of qualifying, reputations are already counting for very little.

Three groups where the rules change

The mathematics of qualification are straightforward in nine of the 12 groups: finish first or second and you qualify.

But Groups D, H and L are different.

Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are already qualified as hosts. Only the highest-placed non-host team in each of their groups will join them at the finals.

That means South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea are effectively fighting for one place in Group D. Tunisia, Libya and Botswana are doing the same in Group H, while Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar are contesting the solitary available ticket in Group L.

That distinction has made Nigeria’s disastrous start particularly costly.

Group A: Morocco make the perfect start

Morocco 6 | Gabon 3 | Niger 3 | Lesotho 0

Morocco have done exactly what was expected of them: two matches, two victories and no goals conceded.

The Atlas Lions followed their opening victory over Gabon with a 2-0 win against Lesotho, putting themselves firmly in control of Group A.

Niger had started strongly by beating Lesotho 2-1, with Daniel Sosah and Oumar Sako scoring before Sera Motebang pulled one back from the penalty spot late on.

Gabon responded to their opening defeat by beating Niger, leaving the early battle behind Morocco finely balanced.

The Atlas Lions, however, have already opened daylight at the top.

Group B: Egypt recover after frustrating start

Egypt 4 | Malawi 3 | Angola 1 | South Sudan 0

Egypt’s campaign began with frustration when Angola held them to a goalless draw in Cairo.

Their response was emphatic.

The Pharaohs put five past South Sudan in Juba, with Omar Marmoush scoring twice as Egypt moved onto four points.

Malawi, meanwhile, opened with a 2-1 victory over South Sudan and remain firmly in contention.

This is the one group where the second round will not be completed until 6 October, when Angola host Malawi.

Until then, Egypt lead, but the table remains incomplete. CAF scheduled Angola-Malawi as the final fixture of Matchday Two.

Group C: Ghana’s nightmare, Gambia’s dream

Côte d’Ivoire 6 | The Gambia 6 | Somalia 0 | Ghana 0

If one group captures the unpredictability of the opening window, it is Group C.

Defending African champions Côte d’Ivoire have done their job, winning twice without conceding.

So have The Gambia.

Ghana have done neither.

After losing 2-0 to Côte d’Ivoire in their opening qualifier, the Black Stars appeared to have found their response when Ernest Nuamah converted a penalty and Felix Afena-Gyan put them 2-0 ahead against The Gambia.

Then everything unravelled.

Muhammed Badamosi pulled one back from the penalty spot before Omar Colley equalised just before half-time.

Ebrima Colley completed the turnaround in the 68th minute and struck again in stoppage time.

Final score: Ghana 2-4 The Gambia.

The Scorpions now have six points from six. Ghana have none.

It leaves the Black Stars facing enormous pressure when qualification resumes in November.

Group D: Bafana seize control

South Africa 6 | Kenya 1 | Eritrea 1 | Guinea 0

Guinea and Kenya have played one match fewer.

South Africa could hardly have asked for a better start to Pitso Mosimane’s return.

Bafana beat Guinea 2-1 at Orlando Stadium before dismantling Eritrea 5-0 in Cairo.

Relebohile Mofokeng scored twice against Eritrea, with Yaya Sithole, Iqraam Rayners and Luther Singh completing the rout.

The result gives South Africa six points and, importantly, a healthy goal difference in a group where only one non-host country qualifies.

Kenya and Eritrea drew 1-1 in their opening match.

The picture will become clearer when Guinea host Kenya in Conakry on Thursday. CAF scheduled that match for 16:00 GMT, or 18:00 South African time.

For Bafana, however, the first window has already delivered maximum points.

Group E: DR Congo set the pace

DR Congo 6 | Zimbabwe 3 | Equatorial Guinea 3 | Sierra Leone 0

DR Congo are another side with a perfect record.

The Leopards followed their opening victory over Equatorial Guinea by winning 2-1 away to Zimbabwe.

Yoane Wissa was central to the victory in Harare, scoring and helping create another before Marshall Munetsi gave Zimbabwe late hope.

Equatorial Guinea recovered from their opening defeat by beating Sierra Leone 1-0.

Two games in, DR Congo have already created a three-point cushion.

Group F: Nothing between Benin and Burkina Faso

Benin 4 | Burkina Faso 4 | Mauritania 3 | Central African Republic 0

This could become one of the tightest groups in the competition.

Benin and Burkina Faso drew 1-1 in their opening encounter before both won their second matches.

Benin survived a late Mauritanian fightback to win 2-1, with Rodolfo Aloko scoring their second shortly after half-time.

Burkina Faso edged the Central African Republic.

That leaves Benin and Burkina Faso level on four points, with Mauritania only one behind.

Nobody has taken control yet.

Group G: Cameroon leave the door open

Cameroon 4 | Comoros 3 | Namibia 3 | Congo 1

Cameroon started strongly with a 3-1 victory over Comoros but surrendered their perfect record against Congo.

The Indomitable Lions had to settle for a 1-1 draw, leaving them on four points.

Comoros responded to their opening defeat by beating Namibia 1-0, while Namibia’s opening victory over Congo keeps them firmly in the race.

Only three points separate first from fourth.

In a six-match qualifying campaign, that means Group G remains wide open.

Group H: Tunisia already under pressure

Uganda 4 | Botswana 2 | Tunisia 2 | Libya 1

The most important number here is not Uganda’s four points.

It is Tunisia’s two.

Uganda are already qualified as co-hosts, so the real contest is between Tunisia, Botswana and Libya for the group’s single additional place.

Tunisia have drawn both matches.

Uganda held them 1-1 in their opener before Botswana denied them victory in their second game.

Uganda then beat Libya 1-0, Arnold Vula scoring in first-half stoppage time.

For Tunisia, the calculation is becoming uncomfortable. They remain unbeaten, but in a one-ticket race, draws can quickly become expensive.

Group I: Algeria stumble but stay unbeaten

Algeria 4 | Zambia 3 | Togo 3 | Burundi 1

Algeria appeared to be taking control after beating Zambia 3-1 in their opener.

Then Burundi gave them a scare.

The Algerians found themselves 2-0 down inside the opening stages before recovering to draw 2-2 and preserve their unbeaten start.

Zambia, meanwhile, responded impressively to their opening defeat.

Albert Kangwanda scored after only three minutes against Togo before substitute Eliya Mandanji struck in the 95th minute to secure a 2-0 victory.

Zambia and Togo now have three points each, one behind Algeria.

There is very little room for error.

Group J: Mozambique refuse to play supporting role

Mozambique 4 | Senegal 4 | Sudan 3 | Ethiopia 0

Senegal may be the biggest name in Group J, but Mozambique are making it clear this will not be a procession.

The Mambas held Senegal 1-1 in their opening match before producing a commanding victory over Sudan.

Senegal responded by beating Ethiopia to move onto four points.

That leaves Senegal and Mozambique together at the top, with Sudan still within striking distance on three.

For Mozambique, who have been steadily improving on the continental stage, four points from their opening two matches represent a significant start.

Group K: Rwanda and Mali refuse to blink

Rwanda 6 | Mali 6 | Cape Verde 0 | Liberia 0

There is already a clean divide in Group K.

Rwanda and Mali have six points.

Cape Verde and Liberia have none.

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Rwanda’s second victory was particularly impressive.

They fell behind away to Cape Verde before Claude Niyomugabo equalised in first-half stoppage time. Elie Iradukunda Tatou then struck seven minutes after the restart to complete a 2-1 comeback victory.

Mali followed their 3-1 opening victory over Cape Verde with a hard-fought 1-0 win in Liberia.

The November meetings between the group’s two perfect teams could go a long way towards deciding who takes control.

Group L: Nigeria rocked by Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau 6 | Nigeria 3 | Madagascar 1 | Tanzania 1

This is the result that has shaken the qualifying campaign.

Guinea-Bissau did not scrape past Nigeria.

They beat the Super Eagles 3-0.

Franculino opened the scoring after 15 minutes, Mama Baldé doubled the lead in the second half and Álvaro Djaló completed the rout in stoppage time.

It was Guinea-Bissau’s second victory in as many matches following their 2-0 win away to Tanzania.

They have six points.

They have scored five.

They have conceded none.

And because Tanzania qualify automatically as co-hosts, only one of Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria and Madagascar can join them at AFCON.

Nigeria had already been made to work in their opener, coming from behind to beat Madagascar 2-1.

Now they are three points behind Guinea-Bissau in a qualifying race that offers no second place to fall back on.

For the Super Eagles, November has suddenly become critical.

What happens next?

Two fixtures remain before the opening qualifying window is formally complete.

Guinea host Kenya in Conakry on Thursday, 1 October, a match with direct implications for South Africa’s Group D campaign.

Angola then host Malawi on 6 October to complete Group B.

After that, qualification pauses until the next FIFA international window.

Matchdays three and four will be played from 9 to 17 November 2026, before the final two rounds take place between 22 and 30 March 2027.

By the end of March, Africa’s 24-team field will be complete.

The old order is already being tested

It would be premature to declare any heavyweight finished after two matches.

There are still 12 points available to most teams, and early qualifying tables can change rapidly.

But some of the warning signs are impossible to ignore.

Ghana have lost twice.

Nigeria have suffered a 3-0 defeat in a group where there is only one qualification place available beyond the host.

Tunisia have drawn their opening two matches.

Cape Verde have lost twice.

At the other end of the spectrum, Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia and Rwanda have maximum points, while Mozambique have gone unbeaten through matches against Senegal and Sudan.

That is what the first week of AFCON qualifying has delivered.

Not elimination. Not qualification.

But a warning to Africa’s traditional powers that reputations will not buy a ticket to East Africa.